Supervised Machine Learning Approach to Identify Early Predictors of Poor Outcome in Patients with COVID-19 Presenting to a Large Quaternary Care Hospital in New York City.

BACKGROUND: The progression of clinical manifestations in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlights the need to account for symptom duration at the time of hospital presentation in decision-making algorithms. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control analysis of 4103 adult patients with COVID-19 and at least 28 days of follow-up who presented to a New York City medical center. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to identify predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: Patients presenting to the hospital earlier in their disease course were older, had more comorbidities, and a greater proportion decompensated (<4 days, 41%; 4-8 days, 31%; >8 days, 26%). The first recorded oxygen delivery method was the most important predictor of decompensation overall in CART analysis. In patients with symptoms for <4, 4-8, and >8 days, requiring at least non-rebreather, age ≥ 63 years, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio ≥ 5.1; requiring at least non-rebreather, IL-6 ≥ 24.7 pg/mL, and D-dimer ≥ 2.4 µg/mL; and IL-6 ≥ 64.3 pg/mL, requiring non-rebreather, and CRP ≥ 152.5 mg/mL in predictive models were independently associated with poor outcome, respectively. CONCLUSION: Symptom duration in tandem with initial clinical and laboratory markers can be used to identify patients with COVID-19 at increased risk for poor outcomes.

Characterization of Bacterial and Fungal Infections in Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Factors Associated With Health Care-Associated Infections.

BACKGROUND: Patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are at increased risk of health care-associated infections (HAIs), especially with prolonged hospital stays. We sought to identify incidence, antimicrobial susceptibilities, and outcomes associated with bacterial/fungal secondary infections in a large cohort of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We evaluated adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between 2 March and 31 May 2020 and hospitalized >24 hours. Data extracted from medical records included diagnoses, vital signs, laboratory results, microbiological data, and antibiotic use. Microbiologically confirmed bacterial and fungal pathogens from clinical cultures were evaluated to characterize community- and health care-associated infections, including describing temporal changes in predominant organisms on presentation and throughout hospitalization. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate risk factors for HAIs. RESULTS: A total of 3028 patients were included and accounted for 899 positive clinical cultures. Overall, 516 (17%) patients with positive cultures met criteria for infection. Community-associated coinfections were identified in 183 (6%) patients, whereas HAIs occurred in 350 (12%) patients. Fifty-seven percent of HAIs were caused by gram-negative bacteria and 19% by fungi. Antibiotic resistance increased with longer hospital stays, with incremental increases in the proportion of vancomycin resistance among enterococci and ceftriaxone and carbapenem resistance among Enterobacterales. Intensive care unit stay, invasive mechanical ventilation, and steroids were associated with HAIs. CONCLUSIONS: HAIs occur in a small proportion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and are most often caused by gram-negative and fungal pathogens. Antibiotic resistance is more prevalent with prolonged hospital stays. Antimicrobial stewardship is imperative in this population to minimize unnecessary broad-spectrum antibiotic use.

Disease Course and Outcomes of COVID-19 Among Hospitalized Patients With Gastrointestinal Manifestations.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Our understanding of outcomes and disease time course of COVID-19 in patients with gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms remains limited. In this study we characterize the disease course and severity of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients with gastrointestinal manifestations in a large, diverse cohort from the Unites States. METHODS: This retrospective study evaluated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19 between March 11 and April 28, 2020 at two affiliated hospitals in New York City. We evaluated the association between GI symptoms and death, and also explored disease duration, from symptom onset to death or discharge. RESULTS: Of 2804 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, the 1,084 (38.7%) patients with GI symptoms were younger (aOR for age ≥75, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.45-0.77) and had more co-morbidities (aOR for modified Charlson comorbidity score ≥2, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.48) compared to those without GI symptoms. Individuals with GI symptoms had better outcomes, with a lower likelihood of intubation (aHR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.55-0.79) and death (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.87), after adjusting for clinical factors. These patients had a longer median disease course from symptom onset to discharge (13.8 vs 10.8 days, log-rank p = .048; among 769 survivors with available symptom onset time), which was driven by longer time from symptom onset to hospitalization (7.4 vs 5.4 days, log-rank P < .01). CONCLUSION: Hospitalized patients with GI manifestations of COVID-19 have a reduced risk of intubation and death, but may have a longer overall disease course driven by duration of symptoms prior to hospitalization.